Thursday, April 23, 2009

Stimulus? What stimulus?

It's been more than two months since Obama's first signature piece of legislation, the $787 billion "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009" spending program, was passed. Obama claimed that if his "stimulus" was not passed, the economy would fall off the cliff and we would all die of starvation or some such calamity.
The moon was full, economic woe was the werewolf, and Obama had a silver bullet. A very, very, very expensive silver bullet.
So a mammoth "stimulus" spending bill that nobody read was passed overnight, and what has changed? Did we turn from the cliff?
It looks like we're still right on the edge and hanging on for dear life. The newest Department of Labor jobless claims were released today, showing yet another rise in unemployment, with initial jobless claims up 27,000, to 640,000.
Furthermore, continuing jobless claims rose 93,000, to 6,137,000.
Economists generally believe an extended halt or decline in initial jobless claims, which are indicative of employer layoffs, is an indicator that a recession is nearing its end, historically within two to three months.
If you recall Obama's whirlwind "Stimulus Publicity Tour" during which he flew all over the country to drum up support for this unprecedented irresponsible spending of taxpayer money, he happened to bless the little town of Peoria, Illinois with his benevolent presence. He gave a speech at the Caterpillar plant where he promised that the CEO of Caterpillar, Jim Owens, said if the "stimulus" bill was passed he would rehire thousands of laid off employees. The problem is Jim Owens never said that.
During his visit, Obama said, “What’s happening at this company tells us a larger story about what’s happening in the American economy.”
Like most companies in the last several months, Caterpillar has lost jobs. They are on pace to shed more than 20,000 jobs.
And what about General Motors? The country's largest automaker announced yesterday it will be closing its factories for nine weeks this summer. It also seems that bankruptcy is imminent for Chrysler.
It doesn't look good.
Obama likes to fall back on his familiar refrain, blaming the "failed policies of the past eight years". Policies like a reduction in taxes, which saved the economy from collapse after 9/11? Those are failed policies? Policies such as a stimulus in the form a tax reduction that would show up in workers' paychecks in a matter of weeks?
By all accounts Obama's "stimulus" has proven to be a failure. The Government Accountability Office released reports today detailing the appropriation of the "stimulus" money for the states and its "initial implementation". (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09580.pdf)
Of the $787 billion of taxpayer money confiscated from us, our children, and our children's children for "economic stimulus", only $49 billion will be doled out to the states during fiscal year 2009. That works out to only 6.2%. Of that, 90% is targeted for healthcare, transportation, and education via the "State Fiscal Stabilization Fund".
Regarding healthcare, that means shoring up Medicaid payments. For fiscal year 2009, this makes up 64% of the total state "stimulus" funding. Furthermore, funding weighted towards creating the much-publicized "shovel-ready" jobs in transportation infrastructure is not scheduled to take full effect until 2012, when it will make up only 30% of total funding.
Even more disturbing is that while Obama was clamoring for this "stimulus" to be passed, claiming its immediate need, the majority of the "stimulus" money will not be spent until 2010 and 2011. In fact, more than twice as much will be spent in 2010 than during this year. Whereas approximately $50 billion will be spent in 2009, approximately $110 billion will be spent in 2010, and more than $60 billion in 2011.
This is dense material to be sure. But the numbers are clear. The "stimulus" is a failure. It has not stimulated the economy or created millions of jobs. But this should not surprise anyone. After all, Barack Obama doesn't believe in guns.

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